Courtesy of Turning Point USA, with over 22k likes and 16k shares. This is basically a rehash of the same Turning Point meme from two years ago, which was covered on the FB page here. That meme had factually correct numbers, but was criticized for its shallow take that it was simply due to cities being “run by liberals.”

This meme has factually incorrect numbers, because they used the same numbers from two years ago. Every year, the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issues its annual homelessness assessment. This meme uses statistics from the 2017 assessment, while the 2019 report is now available. Not only is the data is out of date, they suspiciously omitted San Diego, despite it having more homeless than Washington, D.C.

San Diego has traditionally been a more conservative city, and still has a mayor and 4 out of 5 board of supervisors who are Republicans. The omission is not only another falsehood, but an attempt to deceive. Even if they used the 2017 data, San Diego would still be ranked #4 and should be included. Despite these errors, this meme does still have a popular and potentially convincing argument, which should be examined. It gives us an opportunity not only to look at the real homeless numbers, but to dive deeper into the context of homeless statistics and what might be behind the problem.

The Correct Numbers

These homeless numbers are based on the 2019 Annual Homelessness Assessment Report to Congress from HUD. This takes a snapshot of “one night in January” across the country, although it’s really done over the last 10 days in January. They use this period to analyze and estimate the homeless population in every state. It’s not perfect or an exhaustive study, but it appears to be the standard cited for homeless statistics (and the same place the meme got its older data from). Here are the top cities/urban areas for number of homeless in 2019:

1. New York City– 78,604
2. Los Angeles- 56,257
3. Seattle- 11,199
4. San Jose/Santa Clara- 9,706
5. San Diego- 8,102
6. Oakland/Berkley/Alameda- 8,022
7. Orange County, CA- 6,860
8. Washington, D.C.- 6,521

Compared to the meme’s 2017 statistics, NYC and LA increased slightly, Seattle and Washington, D.C. decreased slightly and San Jose went up considerably. San Diego was omitted, and Oakland and Orange County are new to the list. The HUD assessment no longer lists San Francisco or Philadelphia in the top cities or counties. Unfortunately, the report doesn’t give statistics on every city or county, only a select highest few. Beyond that, they provide data for each state.

One note on San Francisco, as it might surprise some they aren’t in the top cities. When mayor London Breed was elected in 2018, she vowed to rid the city of homeless encampments. Initially, there was a sharp drop in encampments by the end of 2018, which would have coincided with the January 2019 HUD assessment. However, the situation reversed by the end of 2019, and it’s likely San Francisco will return to the list of top cities in next year’s report. They do currently make the list for most chronically homeless, ranking #3 with 2,855.

Sheltered vs Unsheltered

Often left out of shallow analyses like this meme is the difference between sheltered and unsheltered homeless. Of the 568,000 homeless people in the HUD assessment, 63% were sheltered and 37% unsheltered. Sheltered are considered those staying in homeless shelters or transitional housing programs, while unsheltered are living in places “not suitable for human habitation” like abandoned buildings, cars or on the street. Thus, when Bernie Sanders says that “half-a-million people are sleeping out on the street tonight” he is making the same mistake of lumping all homeless together.

The difference between the groups should be obvious and stark to how it affects a city and its inhabitants, as unsheltered inhabitants tend to be much more of a nuisance and harm. Studies show that unsheltered homeless fare much worse for themselves as well as for the community than sheltered homeless. And it turns out there’s a huge difference between cities and which type of homeless they have.

For example, while New York City has the highest amount of homeless people, the vast majority are sheltered. Out of New York state’s 92,000 homeless population, only 4.4% (4,047) are unsheltered. Meanwhile, 71.7% of California’s homeless are unsheltered, 108,432 out of 151,278! In LA, 85.4% of homeless are unsheltered, meaning they have over 40,000 compared to less than 4,000 in NYC, despite having less total homeless. Thus, comparing total homeless populations is misleading, as LA has a much worse problem.

Another relevant category is chronically homeless, which pertains to those who’ve been homeless for more than a year. Like unsheltered vs. sheltered, chronic vs. transient carries a similarly disproportionate nuisance and danger. Again, LA far outpaces NYC in this category, with 14,906 vs 5,193 chronically homeless.

Is it a “Progressive” Problem?

While it might seem tempting for some to simply blame this on leftists or progressives, it appears to be more of a California or West Coast problem. An astounding 53% of the entire US unsheltered population lives in California, as do 54% of the chronically homeless. More than 60% of these populations are located on the West Coast. The top 5 cities for percent of unsheltered homeless are all in California. Fresno (90.6%), San Jose (87.4%), LA (85.4%), Oakland (83.8%) and Sacramento (75.3%). Yet Fresno has a Republican mayor. Also, Imperial County (91.4%) and San Bernardino County (86.5%) are in more conservative areas and have the same issue. Attributing the problem solely to leftist control is a shallow take.

It’s more likely a combination of the nice weather and accommodating policies and laws. For example, there are several laws which prevent California from placing mentally ill under conservatorship, one of which was signed by Reagan back in the late 1960s. It was meant to protect the mentally ill from being institutionalized and face the notorious abuses from that era, but now makes it extremely difficult to get an uncooperative patient any treatment, even if they’re living on the streets. Additionally, the Ninth Circuit (affecting the West Coast) has ruled cities can’t even give tickets to homeless unless they have enough beds to house their entire homeless population. While it could be validly argued that progressives tend to support these sorts of laws which exacerbate the problem, it’s not limited to progressive areas, and not all areas controlled by leftists see the same issues with homelessness.

If we look at the data by state, there isn’t a particularly large correlation between progressive areas and homelessness, with the notable exception of the West Coast. After all, Republican strongholds like Alaska, Montana, Idaho, South Dakota and Nebraska have higher homeless rates than Connecticut, New Jersey or Illinois. The relatively low amounts of homeless in Chicago, Detroit and Baltimore, which are in very progressive areas, also cuts into the argument.

If one was interested in solving the homeless problem, it would be wiser to argue against the specific laws and policies that clearly allow it to fester in certain areas than to lump the entire problem as simply leftist control.

Homeless Demographics

Here are some interesting demographic statistics from the assessment.

• 61% of homeless are male, 39% are female, and less than 1% are transgender or non conforming.
• Adults 25 or older make up 3/4’s of the homeless. Young adults were 9% and children were 19%. Fortunately, children are a small part of the unsheltered. Just 9% of homeless children are unsheltered, while adults 25 and over make up 87%.
• 47% of homeless are white, while 57% of unsheltered are white (whites make up 77% of the population). 40% of homeless are black, and 52% of homeless families with children are black (despite being 13% of the population). However, just 27% of the unsheltered were black. Hispanics make up 22% of homeless and 23% of unsheltered (fairly equal to their 18% representation in the population).
• Unsheltered homeless increased across all racial groups. Whites increased the most in absolute numbers from 2018 (+5,592) while Native Americans increased the most percentage wise (+28%).

Historical Context

Despite the media hype about the homelessness problem being unprecedented, the historical trend is generally positive. Since HUD first started this assessment in 2007, the number of homeless has dropped 12% (647,000 to 568,000). This includes a 17% drop in the unsheltered homeless (256,000 to 211,000). There was a similar drop in chronic homelessness. However, the numbers have been increasing slightly since 2016, which was the low point.

Last year, the number of homeless increased by 3%. While the sheltered homeless actually decreased slightly, the unsheltered made up for it with a 9% increase. This suggests the problem is more mental illness and addiction-based than poverty-based, and jives with the data showing the vast majority of unsheltered adults suffer from mental illness and/or addiction. High housing prices do not explain the rise or prevalence in California, as other locations like NYC have high prices but low amounts of unsheltered.

While the number of homeless increased last year, 29 states plus Washington, D.C. saw a decrease. The increase came mostly from California, which had 21,306 more homeless than in 2018. In other words, leaving aside the West Coast, the homeless problem is trending down quite nicely. If we go back further, 37 states saw declines in homelessness since 2007.

It sounds like a lot to hear over half-a-million Americans are homeless, and it makes a good soundbite for politicians, but this is just 17 out of 10,000 individuals, less than .2% of the population. Only 6 out of 10,000 (.06%) are unsheltered homeless “sleeping on the streets.”

Another positive trend that’s received fairly little coverage is homeless veterans. These numbers have plummeted since 2007. Total homeless veterans plunged almost 50%, from 73,367 to 37,085. Unsheltered veterans fell even more, by 52% (29,958 to 14,345).

Conclusion

This meme uses outdated statistics and dishonestly removes San Diego from the list of top homeless cities. It’s blame of “progressive leftist mayors” is shallow, but it does show that the problem is predominantly in a few areas. The unsheltered and chronic homeless problem exists almost entirely on the West Coast, primarily California. Some of this can be blamed on progressive policies and refusal to acknowledge the main problem (allowing mentally ill and addicts to live on the streets), but it’s also a combination of nice weather and old laws preventing any enforcement or solutions that appear to make the problem worse in certain cities.